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Tolosa vs Basconia

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 game between Tolosa and Basconia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Basconia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Tolosa
15%
Draws
85%
Basconia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Basconia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Tolosa haven't matched Basconia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Basconia's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.2%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 15%
Basconia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolosa Basconia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 3 12
Losses 21 5
Goals Scored 1.23 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Basconia
1:2
Oct 3, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Tolosa
2:2
Apr 19, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Tolosa
0:0
Nov 24, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Basconia
0:2
Apr 8, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Tolosa
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolosa 15 / 100
Basconia 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolosa Basconia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Basconia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Basconia conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Tolosa found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Basconia's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Basconia
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolosa

(Home)
29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4
Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1
Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2
Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4
Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 6

Basconia

(Away)
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2
Atletico Astorga
06 Sept
Ourense CF
2 : 1
Basconia
29 Aug
Gernika Club
0 : 1
Basconia
22 Aug
Basconia
1 : 3
Valladolid Promesas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alaves B 38 21 13 4 72:31 76
2 Beasain 38 19 13 6 65:36 70
3 Portugalete 38 19 13 6 60:33 70
4 Barakaldo 38 20 9 9 64:46 69
5 Basconia 38 18 11 9 45:32 65
6 CD Vitoria 38 16 11 11 55:49 59
7 San Ignacio 38 17 7 14 57:48 58
8 SCD Durango 38 13 18 7 42:29 57
9 Leioa 38 15 11 12 55:38 56
10 Anaitasuna FT 38 14 10 14 48:49 52
11 Lagun Onak 38 13 12 13 42:44 51
12 Pasaia 38 13 11 14 36:43 50
13 SD Deusto 38 11 16 11 42:40 49
14 Urduliz FT 38 12 9 17 39:57 45
15 Aurrera Ondarroa 38 10 8 20 36:55 38
16 Santutxu FC 38 8 14 16 42:60 38
17 Uritarra 38 10 8 20 38:52 38
18 Amurrio Club 38 8 13 17 39:45 37
19 Beti Gazte 38 6 8 24 34:80 26
20 Tolosa 38 7 5 26 43:87 26
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 (Play Offs)