Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca vs Los Angeles FC

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Champions Cup Estadio Nemesio Díez
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Porteous R.
46'
Sub
Shaffelburg J. In: Hollingshead R.
Out: Shaffelburg J.
49' Event
Helinho
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Champions Cup game between Toluca and Los Angeles FC finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Toluca
28%
Draws
50%
Los Angeles FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Los Angeles FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Los Angeles FC come out ahead of Toluca on wins alone.
  • Los Angeles FC are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this CONCACAF Champions Cup fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Toluca Clean Sheet 16%
Los Angeles FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Los Angeles FC
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Toluca vs Los Angeles FC
4:0
Apr 30, 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Los Angeles FC vs Toluca
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulinho
2 Goals
Assists Leader del Villar E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Los Angeles FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 23 / 100
Los Angeles FC 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Los Angeles FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Toluca scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Toluca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Los Angeles FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Los Angeles FC
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Toluca-
TBD-
UNAM Pumas2
San Diego FC4
Mount Pleasant-
TBD-
Los Angeles Galaxy1
Sporting San Miguelito1
Cruz Azul8
Vancouver FC0
Monterrey3
Xelaju1
Alajuelense-
TBD-
Los Angeles FC7
Real Espana1
Inter Miami-
TBD-
Nashville SC7
Atletico Ottawa0
Club America2
Olimpia1
Philadelphia Union12
Defence Force0
Tigres UANL4
Forge FC1
FC Cincinnati13
Universidad O&M0
Seattle Sounders-
TBD-
Vancouver Whitecaps2
Cartagines0
1/8-finals
Toluca6
San Diego FC3
Mount Pleasant0
Los Angeles Galaxy6
Cruz Azul4
Monterrey3
Alajuelense2
Los Angeles FC3
Inter Miami1
Nashville SC1
Club America2
Philadelphia Union1
Tigres UANL5
FC Cincinnati4
Seattle Sounders5
Vancouver Whitecaps1
Quarter-finals
Toluca7
Los Angeles Galaxy2
Cruz Azul1
Los Angeles FC4
Nashville SC1
Club America0
Tigres UANL3
Seattle Sounders3
Semi-finals
Toluca5
Los Angeles FC2
Nashville SC0
Tigres UANL2
Final
Toluca2
Tigres UANL1