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Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U20
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Toluca U20 play Guadalajara Chivas U20 in the Liga MX U20. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toluca U20 averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Guadalajara Chivas U20 averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Toluca U20 won 2, Guadalajara Chivas U20 won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 13, 2023 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Toluca U20 and 1.69 for Guadalajara Chivas U20. This points to a Toluca U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Toluca U20
31%
Draws
34%
Guadalajara Chivas U20
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Toluca U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca U20 picked up more points recently compared to Guadalajara Chivas U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Toluca U20 Clean Sheet 13%
Guadalajara Chivas U20 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U20 Guadalajara Chivas U20
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 13
Draws 4 12
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.5 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2023 Liga MX U20
Guadalajara Chivas U20 vs Toluca U20
1:1
May 10, 2023 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
3:2
Jan 21, 2023 Liga MX U20
Guadalajara Chivas U20 vs Toluca U20
2:1
Sep 4, 2022 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
1:0
Apr 9, 2022 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Arteaga V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Guadalajara Chivas U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Cendejas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Parra Teran J. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U20 34 / 100
Guadalajara Chivas U20 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U20 Guadalajara Chivas U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Toluca U20 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Toluca U20 attacking → ← attacking Guadalajara Chivas U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U20 scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Guadalajara Chivas U20 let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Toluca U20 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guadalajara Chivas U20 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 51
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50