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Toluca vs Club Leon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

Leagues Cup Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Gandolfi J.
26'
Martinez I.
39'
Mendez B.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Toluca
20%
Draws
47%
Club Leon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Leon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Club Leon have won more games recently than Toluca.
  • Win probability leans Toluca's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Club Leon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Toluca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%
Club Leon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Club Leon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 18
Draws 3 2
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 2 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Leagues Cup
Toluca vs Club Leon
2:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Club Leon
4:1
Oct 5, 2025 Liga MX
Club Leon vs Toluca
2:4
Feb 9, 2025 Liga MX
Club Leon vs Toluca
3:3
Nov 2, 2024 Liga MX
Toluca vs Club Leon
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinas F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Club Leon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 42 / 100
Club Leon 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Club Leon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toluca scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Club Leon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Toluca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Club Leon
2.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Toluca
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3
Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
Page 1 of 6

Club Leon

(Away)
28 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 1
Juarez
21 Sept
Queretaro
1 : 1
Club Leon
15 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 0
Atletico San Luis
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
06 Sept
Club Leon
1 : 0
Club America
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Toluca 2
Austin FC 0
Club Leon 3
Real Salt Lake 0
Club America 2
Columbus Crew 0
Monterrey 2
Chicago Fire 1
Semi-finals
Toluca 2
Club Leon 0
Club America 2
Monterrey 3
Final
Toluca 2
Monterrey 0
Club Leon 1
Club America 0