Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca vs Pachuca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Valencia E.
Assist: Montiel E.
41'
Bautista A.
60'
Sub
Cordova S. In: Paulinho
Out: Cordova S.

AI Match Summary

Pachuca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Toluca
20%
Draws
28%
Pachuca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca have won more games recently than Pachuca.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Toluca taking it.
  • Toluca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Pachuca
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 18 16
Draws 5 4
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 2.03 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
2:0
May 4, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
2:2
Mar 29, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Valencia E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 58 / 100
Pachuca 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Pachuca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Toluca has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Pachuca conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Pachuca
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Club Leon
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0
Juarez
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Pachuca

(Away)
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
05 Sept
Juarez
0 : 2
Pachuca
29 Aug
Pachuca
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
23 Aug
Atletico San Luis
1 : 1
Pachuca
18 Aug
Pachuca
2 : 3
Puebla
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2