Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca vs Pachuca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Valencia E.
Assist: Montiel E.
41'
Bautista A.
60'
Sub
Cordova S. In: Paulinho
Out: Cordova S.

AI Match Summary

Pachuca in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Toluca
39%
Draws
30%
Pachuca
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Pachuca have won more games recently than Toluca.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Pachuca arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Toluca Clean Sheet 16%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Pachuca
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 16
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
2:0
May 4, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
2:2
Mar 29, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Pachuca
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Valencia E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 31 / 100
Pachuca 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Pachuca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Pachuca has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Toluca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Pachuca
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2
UNAM Pumas
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Toluca
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3
Toluca
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0
Toluca
31 May
Toluca
2 : 1
Tigres UANL
Page 1 of 6

Pachuca

(Away)
18 Jul
UNAM Pumas
0 : 3
Pachuca
04 Jul
Pachuca
3 : 1
Puebla
18 May
UNAM Pumas
1 : 0
Pachuca
15 May
Pachuca
1 : 0
UNAM Pumas
10 May
Pachuca
2 : 0
Toluca
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas6
Club America6
Pachuca3
Toluca0
Guadalajara Chivas3
Tigres UANL3
Cruz Azul4
Atlas2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas1
Pachuca1
Guadalajara Chivas3
Cruz Azul4
Final
UNAM Pumas1
Cruz Azul2