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Toluca vs Seattle Sounders

North & Central America North & Central America

Leagues Cup Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Toluca Logo

Toluca

Thu, Aug 6, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Seattle Sounders Logo

Seattle Sounders

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Leagues Cup. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Toluca at 1.5 goals for, 1.25 against; Seattle Sounders at 0.88 for, 2 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.75 - 1.06) back Toluca to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Toluca
6%
Draws
4%
Seattle Sounders
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Seattle Sounders.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Toluca taking it.
  • Toluca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%
Seattle Sounders Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca Seattle Sounders
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 17 15
Draws 7 3
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 85 / 100
Seattle Sounders 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca Seattle Sounders

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

Away concern: Seattle Sounders has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Seattle Sounders let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Toluca stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS Seattle Sounders
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2
UNAM Pumas
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Toluca
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3
Toluca
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0
Toluca
Page 1 of 7

Seattle Sounders

(Away)
25 Jul
Philadelphia Union
1 : 0
Seattle Sounders
23 Jul
Austin FC
3 : 1
Seattle Sounders
17 Jul
Seattle Sounders
1 : 5
Portland Timbers
25 May
Los Angeles FC
1 : 0
Seattle Sounders
17 May
Seattle Sounders
0 : 2
Los Angeles Galaxy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santos Laguna00000:00
2Monterrey00000:00
3Cruz Azul00000:00
4Atlas00000:00
5Atletico San Luis00000:00
6Guadalajara Chivas00000:00
7Necaxa00000:00
8Pachuca00000:00
9Toluca00000:00
10Atlante00000:00
11Club America00000:00
12Puebla00000:00
13Tigres UANL00000:00
14UNAM Pumas00000:00
15Queretaro00000:00
16Club Tijuana00000:00
17Club Leon00000:00
18Juarez00000:00
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Dallas00000:00
2Real Salt Lake00000:00
3Columbus Crew00000:00
4Chicago Fire00000:00
5Seattle Sounders00000:00
6Portland Timbers00000:00
7Vancouver Whitecaps00000:00
8Philadelphia Union00000:00
9Minnesota United00000:00
10Orlando City00000:00
11New York City00000:00
12FC Cincinnati00000:00
13Los Angeles FC00000:00
14Nashville SC00000:00
15Inter Miami00000:00
16Austin FC00000:00
17Charlotte FC00000:00
18San Diego FC00000:00
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)