Sport Picks
Toluca vs Seattle Sounders - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
North & Central America
Leagues Cup Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca 
Match Events
3'
3'
Gallardo J.
Assist: Vega A.
61'
61'
Sub
Angulo J. In: Helinho
Out: Angulo J.
62'
62'
Sub
Lopez I. In: Vinas F.
Out: Lopez I.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Seattle Sounders
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Seattle Sounders.
- 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Toluca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Toluca, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Toluca Clean Sheet 17%
Seattle Sounders Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toluca | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 6, 2026 Leagues Cup
Toluca vs Seattle Sounders
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toluca Compare
Top Goalscorer Gallardo J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Helinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Seattle Sounders Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toluca 36 / 100
Seattle Sounders 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toluca Seattle Sounders
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Seattle Sounders Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toluca found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Seattle Sounders conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Toluca stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Toluca VS Seattle Sounders
2.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Toluca
(Home) 03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1 Toluca
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3 Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3 Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1 Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2 Atlas
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3 Santos Laguna
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2 Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0 Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0 Club Leon
31 Aug
Toluca
4 : 0 Juarez
Page 1 of 4
Seattle Sounders
(Away) 02 Oct
Seattle Sounders
2 : 1 Sporting Kansas City
27 Sept
Seattle Sounders
3 : 1 Minnesota United
24 Sept
Seattle Sounders
2 : 0 Real Salt Lake
20 Sept
Colorado Rapids
3 : 3 Seattle Sounders
13 Sept
Los Angeles Galaxy
1 : 1 Seattle Sounders
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Colorado Rapids
3 : 3 Seattle Sounders
13 Sept
Los Angeles Galaxy
1 : 1 Seattle Sounders
22 Aug
FC Cincinnati
1 : 1 Seattle Sounders
06 Aug
Toluca
3 : 0 Seattle Sounders
02 Aug
Portland Timbers
2 : 1 Seattle Sounders
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Leon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 6 | Juarez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 6 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 10 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 11 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 13 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 3 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5:10 | 1 |
| 15 | UNAM Pumas | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 17 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 18 | Puebla | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:11 | 0 |
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Fire | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 8 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 4 | Real Salt Lake | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 7 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Orlando City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 | Minnesota United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 13 | Nashville SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 14 | Inter Miami | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 3 |
| 15 | New York City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 16 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 17 | Philadelphia Union | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - Leagues Cup (Play Offs)
