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Toluca vs UNAM Pumas Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Diaz Price J.
Assist: Helinho
17'
Helinho
46'
Sub
Bennevendo P. In: Cordova S.
Out: Bennevendo P.

AI Match Summary

UNAM Pumas in this Liga MX matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored UNAM Pumas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Toluca
20%
Draws
23%
UNAM Pumas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca have won more games recently than UNAM Pumas.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Toluca taking it.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%
UNAM Pumas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca UNAM Pumas
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs UNAM Pumas
1:2
Mar 4, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Toluca
2:3
Aug 17, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs UNAM Pumas
1:1
Jan 30, 2025 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Toluca
1:1
Oct 6, 2024 Liga MX
Toluca vs UNAM Pumas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz Price J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

UNAM Pumas Compare

Top Goalscorer Arteaga V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cordova S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca 85 / 100
UNAM Pumas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca UNAM Pumas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toluca scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

UNAM Pumas let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Toluca remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toluca VS UNAM Pumas
2.5 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3
Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
Page 1 of 6

UNAM Pumas

(Away)
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3
Atletico San Luis
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
29 Aug
Club Tijuana
2 : 0
UNAM Pumas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 23:12 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
4 Queretaro 9 5 2 2 13:8 17
5 Club Leon 10 5 2 3 14:11 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14:13 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
12 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
14 Atlante 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 10 1 0 9 7:25 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)