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Toluca W vs Atlas W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Toluca W Logo

Toluca W

1 - 1
FT
Atlas W Logo

Atlas W

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Martinez A.
Assist: Huerta R. F. T.
19'
Le Sommer E.
27'
Martinez A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga MX Women matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Toluca W
15%
Draws
37%
Atlas W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca W have won more games recently than Atlas W.
  • Model gives Toluca W a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 12%
Atlas W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca W Atlas W
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 20 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 2.27 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.61 2.26
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atlas W
1:1
Jan 13, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atlas W
2:0
Sep 30, 2025 Liga MX Women
Atlas W vs Toluca W
2:2
Feb 6, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atlas W
0:2
Sep 13, 2024 Liga MX Women
Atlas W vs Toluca W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Le Sommer E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Atlas W Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca W 83 / 100
Atlas W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca W Atlas W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toluca W scored in 91% of their last 33 outings.

Atlas W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Toluca W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca W VS Atlas W
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca W

(Home)
05 Oct
Pachuca W
1 : 2
Toluca W
29 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 4
Toluca W
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7
Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0
Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1
Toluca W
Page 1 of 7

Atlas W

(Away)
26 Sept
Queretaro W
0 : 1
Atlas W
20 Sept
Club America W
2 : 2
Atlas W
12 Sept
Atlas W
1 : 0
Atlante W
05 Sept
Atlas W
0 : 4
Guadalajara Chivas W
30 Aug
Atletico San Luis W
6 : 1
Atlas W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monterrey W 10 9 0 1 39:13 27
2 Tigres UANL W 10 8 1 1 32:10 25
3 Toluca W 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
4 Juarez W 10 7 0 3 14:7 21
5 Santos Laguna W 10 5 0 5 13:20 15
6 Cruz Azul W 10 5 0 5 13:21 15
7 Club Leon W 9 4 0 5 15:17 12
8 Atlante W 10 2 1 7 6:13 7
9 Queretaro W 10 2 0 8 10:22 6
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America W 10 8 1 1 45:11 25
2 Guadalajara Chivas W 10 7 0 3 21:11 21
3 Atletico San Luis W 10 6 1 3 23:16 19
4 UNAM Pumas W 10 4 1 5 18:17 13
5 Atlas W 9 3 3 3 10:17 12
6 Pachuca W 10 3 1 6 14:15 10
7 Club Tijuana W 10 3 0 7 13:24 9
8 Puebla W 10 1 0 9 13:39 3
9 Necaxa W 10 0 0 10 3:38 0
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)