Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toluca W vs Club Tijuana W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Fernandez K.
17' Event
Le Sommer E.
38'
Blackwood D.

AI Match Summary

Toluca W in this Liga MX Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Toluca W
6%
Draws
90%
Club Tijuana W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Club Tijuana W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Toluca W have won more games recently than Club Tijuana W.
  • Club Tijuana W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga MX Women 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
Club Tijuana W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca W Club Tijuana W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2.13 2
Goals Conceded 1.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club Tijuana W
5:3
Jul 25, 2025 Liga MX Women
Club Tijuana W vs Toluca W
1:3
Jan 18, 2025 Liga MX Women
Club Tijuana W vs Toluca W
3:1
Aug 6, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club Tijuana W
2:4
Apr 29, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club Tijuana W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Le Sommer E.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Club Tijuana W Compare

Top Goalscorer Enrigue J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sandoval Trejo D. G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca W 10 / 100
Club Tijuana W 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca W Club Tijuana W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TIJ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca W's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Club Tijuana W has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Toluca W stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toluca W VS Club Tijuana W
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca W

(Home)
10 May
Club America W
4 : 3
Toluca W
08 May
Toluca W
1 : 7
Club America W
04 May
Tigres UANL W
1 : 2
Toluca W
01 May
Toluca W
2 : 1
Tigres UANL W
25 Apr
Guadalajara Chivas W
1 : 1
Toluca W
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Club Tijuana W

(Away)
25 Apr
Club Tijuana W
2 : 0
Mazatlan FC W
05 Apr
Necaxa W
1 : 6
Club Tijuana W
03 Apr
Club Tijuana W
0 : 2
Tigres UANL W
30 Mar
Club Tijuana W
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas W
22 Mar
Queretaro W
0 : 3
Club Tijuana W
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Club America W17133144:1342
2Monterrey W17124139:840
3Tigres UANL W17114241:1337
4Pachuca W17113346:1536
5Guadalajara Chivas W1797127:1334
6Toluca W17103438:2633
7Cruz Azul W1794438:1931
8Juarez W1785427:1829
9Club Tijuana W1784531:2328
10UNAM Pumas W1764723:2922
11Atletico San Luis W1763820:3221
12Mazatlan FC W1753919:2718
13Club Leon W1744932:3516
14Atlas W17331122:4012
15Puebla W17321211:4611
16Santos Laguna W17231214:299
17Queretaro W17121411:465
18Necaxa W17111511:624
Promotion - Liga MX Women 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)