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Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Gebala P.
33' Event
Krecichwost B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
6%
Draws
90%
Warta Sieradz
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Warta Sieradz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tomaszow Mazowiecki haven't matched Warta Sieradz's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Warta Sieradz taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%
Warta Sieradz Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tomaszow Mazowiecki Warta Sieradz
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz
1:1
Aug 27, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Warta Sieradz vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:1
May 3, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Warta Sieradz vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
4:0
Oct 5, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Gebala P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Warta Sieradz Compare

Top Goalscorer Krecichwost B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomaszow Mazowiecki 10 / 100
Warta Sieradz 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Warta Sieradz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tomaszow Mazowiecki found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Warta Sieradz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tomaszow Mazowiecki remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tomaszow Mazowiecki VS Warta Sieradz
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Legia II34273482:2984
2LKS Lomza34225777:3171
3Warta Sieradz34218564:3471
4Suwalki34205964:4365
5Troszyn341761175:4757
6Plock II341681056:5156
7Widzew Lodz II341731470:6454
8Jagiellonia II341471346:4549
9Tomaszow Mazowiecki341381364:5547
10Zabkovia Zabki341351672:6444
11Swit Mazowiecki341251751:6641
12MKS Mlawa341171655:5940
13Olimpia Elblag341081645:6138
14GKS Wikielec341071740:5437
15Bron Radom34991640:5736
16GKS Belchatow34971850:7634
17Wasilkow34742340:7925
18Znicz Biala Piska34432727:10315