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Tombense vs Avai

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida, Tombos
Tombense Logo

Tombense

3 - 2
FT
Avai Logo

Avai

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Juan Rocha
21'
Sub
Roger Carvalho In: Donato
Out: Roger Carvalho
32'
Tedesco N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tombense
35%
Draws
26%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tombense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Avai carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tombense a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Avai arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Avai have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tombense Clean Sheet 68%
Avai Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tombense Avai
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 11 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.23 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Tombense vs Avai
3:2
Aug 19, 2023 Serie B
Avai vs Tombense
4:2
May 6, 2023 Serie B
Tombense vs Avai
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tombense Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipinho
2 Goals
Assists Leader Juan Rocha
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Melo V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tombense 77 / 100
Avai 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tombense Avai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tombense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Tombense's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Avai let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Tombense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tombense VS Avai
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0.33 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tombense

(Home)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 6

Avai

(Away)
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
30 Aug
Avai
0 : 1
Atletico GO
23 Aug
Ponte Preta
0 : 2
Avai
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)