Sport Picks
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League South 
Match Events
23'
23'
Babajide O.
33'
33'
Angol L.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
Tonbridge in this National League South matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tonbridge.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tonbridge
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tonbridge lately — more wins on the board than Hemel Hempstead.
- Model gives Tonbridge a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 20%
Hemel Hempstead Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tonbridge | Hemel Hempstead |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 17, 2026 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
1:0
Sep 12, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:1
Feb 28, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tonbridge Compare
Top Goalscorer Babajide O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Hemel Hempstead Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tonbridge 36 / 100
Hemel Hempstead 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tonbridge Hemel Hempstead
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tonbridge scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Hemel Hempstead conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Tonbridge went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tonbridge VS Hemel Hempstead
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Tonbridge
(Home) 17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
10 Oct
Maidenhead
0 : 1 Tonbridge
03 Oct
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Torquay
26 Sept
Tonbridge
1 : 2 Ebbsfleet
19 Sept
Tonbridge
2 : 1 Ramsgate
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
03 Oct
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Torquay
26 Sept
Tonbridge
1 : 2 Ebbsfleet
19 Sept
Tonbridge
2 : 1 Ramsgate
08 Sept
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Maidstone
Page 1 of 4
Hemel Hempstead
(Away) 17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
10 Oct
Dagenham & Red.
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
26 Sept
Slough Town
0 : 2 Hemel Hempstead
22 Sept
Wingate & Finchley
2 : 1 Hemel Hempstead
19 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Wingate & Finchley
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
10 Oct
Dagenham & Red.
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
26 Sept
Slough Town
0 : 2 Hemel Hempstead
22 Sept
Wingate & Finchley
2 : 1 Hemel Hempstead
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20:4 | 21 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20:8 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 25:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17:8 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21:11 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Red. | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10:9 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover Ath. | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18:17 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 23:17 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 14 | Chelmsford | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14:8 | 14 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:13 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10:17 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:24 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18:27 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9:23 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11:26 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10:27 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12:31 | 4 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
