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Tondela vs Academica

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Farias E.
21'
Fernandes R.
30'
Canizares L.

AI Match Summary

Academica in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Academica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tondela
15%
Draws
34%
Academica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Academica lately — more wins on the board than Tondela.
  • Tondela are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Tondela Clean Sheet 68%
Academica Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tondela Academica
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.1 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Academica
0:2
Jul 22, 2026 Club Friendly
Tondela vs Academica
2:1
Jul 10, 2024 Club Friendly
Academica vs Tondela
1:3
Jul 15, 2023 Club Friendly
Tondela vs Academica
1:1
Oct 2, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Academica vs Tondela
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tondela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Academica Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tondela 86 / 100
Academica 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tondela Academica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tondela scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Academica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Tondela went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tondela VS Academica
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

(Home)
19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5
Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 7

Academica

(Away)
18 Sept
Real SC
1 : 4
Academica
11 Sept
Academica
0 : 3
Benfica B
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1
Academica
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2
Lusitania FC
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)