Sport Picks
Tondela vs Amarante FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela 
Match Events
18'
18'
Costa M.
Assist: Beirao R.
21'
21'
Fernandes R.
Assist: Carraca
26'
26'
Nito F.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal 2 game between Tondela and Amarante FC finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tondela.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tondela
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Amarante FC carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Tondela's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Tondela here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Tondela Clean Sheet 68%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tondela | Amarante FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 14 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Amarante FC
2:1
Jan 28, 2012 Second Division - Zona Centro
Amarante FC vs Tondela
1:0
Sep 18, 2011 Second Division - Zona Centro
Tondela vs Amarante FC
1:0
Aug 30, 2009 Taça de Portugal
Tondela vs Amarante FC
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tondela Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandes R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Amarante FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Costa M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tondela 68 / 100
Amarante FC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tondela Amarante FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tondela scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Amarante FC let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.75 goals per match.
Solid form: Tondela remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tondela VS Amarante FC
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Tondela
(Home) 19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5 Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2 Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0 Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1 Amarante FC
29 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1 Sao Joao de Ver
25 Jul
Tondela
1 : 2 Beira Mar
Page 1 of 4
Amarante FC
(Away) 20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2 Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2 Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1 Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0 Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0 Amarante FC
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2 Amarante FC
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1 Amarante FC
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0 Amarante FC
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1 Amarante FC
01 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 0 Amarante FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitania FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:5 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 4 | SC Farense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 11 |
| 5 | Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 8 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 9 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7:6 | 9 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 7 |
| 12 | AFS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:6 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Felgueiras | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:8 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)
