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Tonga vs Cook Islands

World World

World Cup 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Saghabi T.
45'
Sub
Burrows E. In: Pareta L.
Out: Burrows E.
53' Event
Saghabi T.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Cook Islands advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tonga
15%
Draws
42%
Cook Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cook Islands come out ahead of Tonga on wins alone.
  • Model gives Tonga a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Cook Islands arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cook Islands, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Tonga Clean Sheet 10%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga Cook Islands
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 5 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 23 18
Goals Scored 1.03 0.81
Goals Conceded 3.8 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2024 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:3
Mar 26, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:0
Nov 21, 2023 Pacific Games
Cook Islands vs Tonga
2:1
Mar 13, 2022 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:0
Aug 31, 2015 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tonga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Cook Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Saghabi T.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga 47 / 100
Cook Islands 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga Cook Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tonga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cook Islands let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Cook Islands registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Tonga's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Tonga VS Cook Islands
1 Goals Scored 0.25
3.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga

(Home)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
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Cook Islands

(Away)
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
30 Nov
Samoa
3 : 0
Cook Islands
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