Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toronto FC vs Atletico Ottawa

Canada Canada

Championship BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Kerr D.
Assist: Etienne D.
40'
Aguilar D.
46'
Sub
Osorio J. In: Coello A.
Out: Osorio J.

AI Match Summary

Atletico Ottawa in this Championship tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Toronto FC
30%
Draws
34%
Atletico Ottawa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Toronto FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atletico Ottawa lately — more wins on the board than Toronto FC.
  • Model gives Toronto FC a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Atletico Ottawa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Atletico Ottawa, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico Ottawa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toronto FC Atletico Ottawa
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 12 9
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Championship
Toronto FC vs Atletico Ottawa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toronto FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kerr D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Atletico Ottawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabla B.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toronto FC 34 / 100
Atletico Ottawa 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toronto FC Atletico Ottawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toronto FC scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Atletico Ottawa has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Toronto FC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toronto FC VS Atletico Ottawa
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Toronto FC

(Home)
25 Jul
DC United
2 : 1
Toronto FC
22 Jul
New England Revolution
0 : 0
Toronto FC
16 Jul
CF Montreal
0 : 0
Toronto FC
24 May
Chicago Fire
2 : 1
Toronto FC
16 May
Charlotte FC
3 : 1
Toronto FC
Page 1 of 7

Atletico Ottawa

(Away)
17 Jul
Atletico Ottawa
1 : 1
Inter Toronto
08 Jul
Supra du Quebec
3 : 1
Atletico Ottawa
04 Jul
Atletico Ottawa
0 : 3
Cavalry
01 Jul
HFX Wanderers
1 : 3
Atletico Ottawa
09 Jun
Atletico Ottawa
5 : 3
Supra du Quebec
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps-
TBD-
Pacific FC1
Cavalry3
CF Montreal5
Calgary Blizzard SC0
Vancouver FC2
Langley United SA0
Forge FC4
HFX Wanderers0
Inter Toronto0
CS Saint-Laurent1
Toronto FC1
Atletico Ottawa3
Supra du Quebec3
Woodbridge Strikers1
Quarter-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps5
Cavalry2
CF Montreal4
Vancouver FC2
Forge FC3
CS Saint-Laurent2
Atletico Ottawa1
Supra du Quebec3
Semi-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps-
CF Montreal-
Forge FC-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-