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Toronto FC II vs New York City II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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MLS Next Pro York Lions Stadium, Toronto, ON
Toronto FC II Logo

Toronto FC II

2 - 0
FT
New York City II Logo

New York City II

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Lopez J.
16' Event
Nolan J.
(Penalty)
29' Event
Henry M.
Assist: Boneau B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS Next Pro game between Toronto FC II and New York City II finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toronto FC II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Toronto FC II
15%
Draws
42%
New York City II
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toronto FC II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and New York City II come out ahead of Toronto FC II on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular MLS Next Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Toronto FC II have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Toronto FC II Clean Sheet 10%
New York City II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toronto FC II New York City II
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 16
Draws 0 0
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.7 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 MLS Next Pro
Toronto FC II vs New York City II
2:0
Apr 24, 2026 MLS Next Pro
Toronto FC II vs New York City II
2:1
Mar 19, 2026 MLS Next Pro
New York City II vs Toronto FC II
0:5
Aug 31, 2025 MLS Next Pro
Toronto FC II vs New York City II
3:0
Jul 16, 2025 MLS Next Pro
New York City II vs Toronto FC II
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toronto FC II Compare

Top Goalscorer Henry M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

New York City II Compare

Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toronto FC II 34 / 100
New York City II 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toronto FC II New York City II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York City II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toronto FC II's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: New York City II conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Toronto FC II stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toronto FC II VS New York City II
2.25 Goals Scored 2.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Toronto FC II

(Home)
20 Sept
Toronto FC II
1 : 3
New England Revolution II
13 Sept
Orlando City B
3 : 1
Toronto FC II
08 Sept
Toronto FC II
4 : 2
Columbus Crew 2
04 Sept
Toronto FC II
2 : 1
FC Cincinnati 2
28 Aug
Toronto FC II
2 : 0
New York City II
Page 1 of 6

New York City II

(Away)
20 Sept
Philadelphia Union II
1 : 2
New York City II
13 Sept
New York City II
1 : 0
CT United FC
08 Sept
New York City II
4 : 2
New York Red Bulls II
01 Sept
Inter Miami II
4 : 2
New York City II
28 Aug
Toronto FC II
2 : 0
New York City II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Columbus Crew 2 28 17 0 11 49:43 48
2 New England Revolution II 28 16 0 12 47:42 48
3 New York City II 28 16 0 12 50:44 47
4 CT United FC 28 16 0 12 59:52 46
5 New York Red Bulls II 28 15 0 13 58:48 46
6 Philadelphia Union II 28 14 0 14 37:40 43
7 Toronto FC II 28 13 0 15 48:56 39
8 FC Cincinnati 2 28 7 0 21 32:62 20
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Crown Legacy 28 20 0 8 67:39 58
2 Chattanooga 28 19 0 9 56:39 56
3 Atlanta United 2 28 15 0 13 62:46 48
4 Huntsville City 28 14 0 14 49:47 44
5 Orlando City B 28 15 0 13 55:56 44
6 Chicago Fire II 28 13 0 15 50:48 39
7 Carolina Core 28 10 0 18 40:53 31
8 Inter Miami II 28 4 0 24 30:74 15
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portland Timbers 2 28 19 0 9 37:29 57
2 Ventura County 28 18 0 10 58:36 53
3 Los Angeles FC 2 28 14 0 14 50:48 45
4 San Jose Earthquakes II 28 14 0 14 51:36 42
5 Tacoma Defiance 28 14 0 14 40:44 41
6 Real Monarchs 28 12 0 16 38:55 33
7 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 28 10 0 18 39:62 27
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austin FC II 28 21 0 7 54:21 65
2 Houston Dynamo 2 28 18 0 10 53:33 52
3 Minnesota United 2 28 15 0 13 43:39 45
4 St. Louis City 2 28 14 0 14 42:40 44
5 North Texas 28 14 0 14 42:41 40
6 Sporting Kansas City II 28 7 0 21 36:75 23
7 Colorado Rapids 2 28 6 0 22 28:52 21
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Crown Legacy 28 20 0 8 67:39 58
2 Chattanooga 28 19 0 9 56:39 56
3 Atlanta United 2 28 15 0 13 62:46 48
4 Columbus Crew 2 28 17 0 11 49:43 48
5 New England Revolution II 28 16 0 12 47:42 48
6 New York City II 28 16 0 12 50:44 47
7 CT United FC 28 16 0 12 59:52 46
8 New York Red Bulls II 28 15 0 13 58:48 46
9 Huntsville City 28 14 0 14 49:47 44
10 Orlando City B 28 15 0 13 55:56 44
11 Philadelphia Union II 28 14 0 14 37:40 43
12 Toronto FC II 28 13 0 15 48:56 39
13 Chicago Fire II 28 13 0 15 50:48 39
14 Carolina Core 28 10 0 18 40:53 31
15 FC Cincinnati 2 28 7 0 21 32:62 20
16 Inter Miami II 28 4 0 24 30:74 15
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austin FC II 28 21 0 7 54:21 65
2 Portland Timbers 2 28 19 0 9 37:29 57
3 Ventura County 28 18 0 10 58:36 53
4 Houston Dynamo 2 28 18 0 10 53:33 52
5 Minnesota United 2 28 15 0 13 43:39 45
6 Los Angeles FC 2 28 14 0 14 50:48 45
7 St. Louis City 2 28 14 0 14 42:40 44
8 San Jose Earthquakes II 28 14 0 14 51:36 42
9 Tacoma Defiance 28 14 0 14 40:44 41
10 North Texas 28 14 0 14 42:41 40
11 Real Monarchs 28 12 0 16 38:55 33
12 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 28 10 0 18 39:62 27
13 Sporting Kansas City II 28 7 0 21 36:75 23
14 Colorado Rapids 2 28 6 0 22 28:52 21
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)