Sport Picks
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS BMO Field, Toronto, ON 
Match Events
23'
23'
Sub
Gavran L. In: Yarbrough W.
Out: Gavran L.
51'
51'
Rios D.
55'
55'
Vera B.
AI Match Summary
The MLS game between Toronto FC and CF Montreal finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toronto FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CF Montreal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Toronto FC haven't matched CF Montreal's recent run of results.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on CF Montreal taking it.
- Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 17%
CF Montreal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toronto FC | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.89 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 16, 2026 MLS
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC
0:0
Aug 30, 2025 MLS
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
1:1
May 17, 2025 MLS
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC
1:6
Apr 30, 2025 Championship
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
2:3
Jul 20, 2024 MLS
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toronto FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Morgan L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mihailovic D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
CF Montreal Compare
Top Goalscorer Rios D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toronto FC 20 / 100
CF Montreal 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toronto FC CF Montreal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CF Montreal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toronto FC scored in 81% of their last 27 games.
Defensive concern: CF Montreal conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Difficult form: CF Montreal registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Toronto FC VS CF Montreal
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Toronto FC
(Home) 27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
05 Sept
Toronto FC
4 : 4 Chicago Fire
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
05 Sept
Toronto FC
4 : 4 Chicago Fire
29 Aug
Toronto FC
1 : 1 New York City
19 Aug
Toronto FC
3 : 3 Charlotte FC
15 Aug
Toronto FC
2 : 1 New England Revolution
Page 1 of 3
CF Montreal
(Away) 26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1 FC Cincinnati
19 Sept
CF Montreal
0 : 2 Columbus Crew
16 Sept
CF Montreal
2 : 1 Vancouver Whitecaps
13 Sept
Colorado Rapids
1 : 0 CF Montreal
09 Sept
CF Montreal
1 : 2 Charlotte FC
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Colorado Rapids
1 : 0 CF Montreal
05 Sept
Philadelphia Union
2 : 0 CF Montreal
03 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 1 CF Montreal
29 Aug
Inter Miami
7 : 1 CF Montreal
19 Aug
Columbus Crew
1 : 2 CF Montreal
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32:65 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55:21 | 60 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45:36 | 46 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64:50 | 46 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47:38 | 43 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54:44 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48:64 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34:51 | 33 |
| 9 | New York City | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41:36 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55:64 | 33 |
| 11 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34:42 | 30 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39:43 | 29 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39:51 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:45 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34:54 | 24 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
