Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Lyon

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Methalie D.
Assist: Gboho Y.
26'
Donnum A.
44'
Methalie D.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Toulouse and Lyon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulouse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Toulouse
33%
Draws
40%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lyon come out ahead of Toulouse on wins alone.
  • Lyon are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%
Lyon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lyon
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 18
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.25 2.88
Goals Conceded 2 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
1:2
Jan 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
1:2
Mar 15, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Methalie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kamanzi W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Tolisso C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 26 / 100
Lyon 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LYO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Toulouse stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Toulouse scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Lyon let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lyon
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
2 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
Page 1 of 6

Lyon

(Away)
24 Jul
Wolfsburg
0 : 2
Lyon
18 Jul
Slavia Prague
2 : 0
Lyon
15 Jul
Lyon
2 : 1
Servette
11 Jul
Lyon
6 : 3
St. Gallen
08 Jul
Lyon
5 : 2
Macon
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)