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Toulouse vs Le Havre - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
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Match Events

34'
Tape C.
49' Event
Tengstedt C.
(Penalty)
51' Event
Tengstedt C.
Assist: Jorgensen T.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Toulouse and Le Havre finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulouse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Toulouse
35%
Draws
32%
Le Havre
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Toulouse carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Toulouse's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 18%
Le Havre Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Le Havre
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 6
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Le Havre
3:2
Feb 15, 2026 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Toulouse
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Le Havre
0:0
Feb 23, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Toulouse
1:4
Sep 15, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Le Havre
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Tengstedt C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jorgensen T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Le Havre Compare

Top Goalscorer Maja J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Samatta A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 36 / 100
Le Havre 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Le Havre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Le Havre conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Toulouse scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Toulouse stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Le Havre
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Lorient
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
Page 1 of 6

Le Havre

(Away)
02 Oct
Le Havre
6 : 1
Boulogne
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Le Havre
0 : 0
Angers
05 Sept
Le Havre
1 : 2
Brest
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11:4 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Lens 6 2 1 3 11:10 7
8 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
9 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
10 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
11 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
12 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
13 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
14 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
15 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)