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Toulouse vs Lille - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Hidalgo S.
46'
Sub
Sahraoui O. In: Bakwa D.
Out: Sahraoui O.
46'
Sub
Verdonk C. In: Perraud R.
Out: Verdonk C.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Toulouse
35%
Draws
25%
Lille
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Toulouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lille lately — more wins on the board than Toulouse.
  • Win probability leans Toulouse's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lille have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 68%
Lille Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lille
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.3 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
0:1
Apr 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
0:4
Sep 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Toulouse
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Toulouse
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Ueda A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 95 / 100
Lille 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toulouse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lille has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Toulouse went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lille
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
25 Oct
Toulouse
0 : 0
Troyes
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
Monaco
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

Lille

(Away)
25 Oct
Monaco
1 : 1
Lille
21 Oct
Lille
2 : 4
Galatasaray
17 Oct
Lille
1 : 1
Brest
13 Oct
Arsenal
3 : 0
Lille
10 Oct
Lille
1 : 0
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 8 5 2 1 16:9 17
2 Rennes 8 5 1 2 18:14 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11:6 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11:7 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13:7 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
7 Lens 8 4 1 3 16:12 13
8 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18:13 12
9 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7:6 12
10 Nice 8 3 2 3 8:10 11
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12:11 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12:18 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14:12 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9:15 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11:16 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12:18 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5:16 5
18 Le Havre 8 0 2 6 8:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)