Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Paris FC

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Methalie D.
34'
Methalie D.
39' Event
Munetsi M.
Assist: Gory A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Toulouse
22%
Draws
60%
Paris FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Paris FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toulouse lately — more wins on the board than Paris FC.
  • Paris FC are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%
Paris FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Paris FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.63 2.25
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Paris FC
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Toulouse
0:3
Apr 2, 2022 Ligue 2
Toulouse vs Paris FC
2:1
Oct 23, 2021 Ligue 2
Paris FC vs Toulouse
2:2
May 1, 2021 Ligue 2
Paris FC vs Toulouse
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Vignolo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Paris FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Munetsi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 18 / 100
Paris FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Paris FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Toulouse found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Paris FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Toulouse has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Paris FC
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
21 Apr
Lens
4 : 1
Toulouse
Page 1 of 6

Paris FC

(Away)
18 Jul
Paris FC
1 : 0
Reims
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1
PSG
10 May
Rennes
2 : 1
Paris FC
03 May
Paris FC
4 : 0
Brest
26 Apr
Paris FC
0 : 1
Lille
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)