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Touring KE vs Derio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Touring KE host Derio in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Touring KE at 1.35 goals for, 1.26 against; Derio at 1.45 for, 1.27 against. Past meetings favor Touring KE slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 0.94) point toward Touring KE. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Touring KE
30%
Draws
39%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Derio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Touring KE taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Touring KE Clean Sheet 20%
Derio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Touring KE Derio
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.35 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Touring KE
2:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Touring KE vs Derio
5:2
Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Touring KE
0:2
Oct 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Touring KE vs Derio
0:1
Mar 16, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Touring KE
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Touring KE 36 / 100
Derio 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Touring KE Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Touring KE's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Derio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Touring KE remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Touring KE VS Derio
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Touring KE

(Home)
10 Oct
Sodupe
1 : 0
Touring KE
03 Oct
Touring KE
2 : 2
SCD Durango
26 Sept
Alaves C
1 : 2
Touring KE
19 Sept
Touring KE
2 : 0
Beasain
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1
Touring KE
Page 1 of 7

Derio

(Away)
10 Oct
SCD Durango
1 : 1
Derio
04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0
Beasain
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5
Salamanca CF UDS
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 16:6 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
4 Real Sociedad C 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
5 UD Aretxabaleta 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Alaves C 6 3 1 2 13:6 10
7 Pasaia 6 3 1 2 9:10 10
8 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 10:8 8
9 Touring KE 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 5:9 8
11 SCD Durango 6 1 4 1 9:9 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
14 SD Erandio 6 2 0 4 6:8 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
16 Eibar C 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
17 Real Union B 6 1 2 3 7:12 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1:13 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)