Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Toyama Stadium

Albirex Niigata

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Toyama play Albirex Niigata in the J2/J3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toyama averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Albirex Niigata averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Toyama won 2, Albirex Niigata won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 29, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Toyama and 1.25 for Albirex Niigata. This points to a Toyama double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Toyama

28%

Draws

50%

Albirex Niigata

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Albirex Niigata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Toyama has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Albirex Niigata.
Model forecasts a 50% win probability edge for Albirex Niigata.
League standings and seasonal metrics in J2/J3 League provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Toyama Clean Sheet 19%

Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Toyama	Albirex Niigata
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	18	13
Draws	2	4
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1.88	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.38	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League

Toyama vs Albirex Niigata

Possession: 46% - 46% Cards: 2 - 0

2:0

Mar 20, 2026 J2/J3 League

Albirex Niigata vs Toyama

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 1 - 4

2:3

Jul 19, 2023 Emperors Cup

Toyama vs Albirex Niigata

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toyama Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuseya S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tsuboi K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Albirex Niigata Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toyama 24 / 100

Albirex Niigata 59 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Toyama Albirex Niigata

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALB Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toyama scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Albirex Niigata let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.67 goals.

Toyama went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Albirex Niigata lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toyama VS Albirex Niigata

1.88 Goals Scored 1.13

1.38 Goals Conceded 1

88% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15