Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tre Fiori vs Virtus

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Sirri A.
14' Event
Golinucci A.
Assist: Rinaldi M.
21' Event
Sirri A.
Assist: Sami B.

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between Tre Fiori and Virtus finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tre Fiori.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Tre Fiori
15%
Draws
85%
Virtus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Virtus carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Virtus are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Tre Fiori Clean Sheet 10%
Virtus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tre Fiori Virtus
Matches Played 36 33
Wins 21 22
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.92 2.3
Goals Conceded 0.92 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Coppa Titano
Tre Fiori vs Virtus
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Tre Fiori vs Virtus
4:1
Mar 4, 2026 Coppa Titano
Virtus vs Tre Fiori
0:0
Dec 23, 2025 Super Cup
Virtus vs Tre Fiori
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs Tre Fiori
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tre Fiori Compare

Top Goalscorer Sirri A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Prandelli M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Golinucci A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tre Fiori 10 / 100
Virtus 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tre Fiori Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Virtus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tre Fiori's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

Virtus lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Virtus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Tre Fiori VS Virtus
1.13 Goals Scored 3.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tre Fiori

(Home)
13 Aug
Drita
5 : 0
Tre Fiori
06 Aug
Tre Fiori
1 : 4
Drita
29 Jul
Tre Fiori
1 : 3
Forli FC
14 Jul
Larne
2 : 1
Tre Fiori
07 Jul
Tre Fiori
0 : 1
Larne
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Virtus

(Away)
16 Jul
Virtus
1 : 0
Dila Gori
09 Jul
Dila Gori
3 : 1
Virtus
30 Jun
Virtus
2 : 3
Vardar
16 May
Virtus
2 : 1
La Fiorita
12 May
SP Domagnano
2 : 1
Virtus
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)