Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tre Penne vs La Fiorita

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Grandoni A.
Assist: Dormi L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with La Fiorita advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Tre Penne
11%
Draws
9%
La Fiorita
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Tre Penne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • La Fiorita haven't matched Tre Penne's recent run of results.
  • Tre Penne are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Tre Penne have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor La Fiorita, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Tre Penne Clean Sheet 68%
La Fiorita Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tre Penne La Fiorita
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 14
Draws 9 9
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Tre Penne vs La Fiorita
0:1
May 9, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
La Fiorita vs Tre Penne
1:1
Jan 31, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Tre Penne vs La Fiorita
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
La Fiorita vs Tre Penne
1:1
Jan 19, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
La Fiorita vs Tre Penne
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tre Penne Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

La Fiorita Compare

Top Goalscorer Grandoni A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tre Penne 86 / 100
La Fiorita 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tre Penne La Fiorita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tre Penne scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

La Fiorita has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Tre Penne went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tre Penne VS La Fiorita
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tre Penne

(Home)
16 May
Tre Penne
3 : 1
SP Domagnano
12 May
Tre Penne
0 : 1
La Fiorita
09 May
La Fiorita
1 : 1
Tre Penne
06 May
SP Cosmos
0 : 0
Tre Penne
03 May
Tre Penne
0 : 0
SP Cosmos
Page 1 of 6

La Fiorita

(Away)
14 Jul
La Fiorita
0 : 2
UNA Strassen
07 Jul
UNA Strassen
1 : 0
La Fiorita
27 Jun
La Fiorita
1 : 1
Vardar
23 May
Tre Fiori
1 : 3
La Fiorita
16 May
Virtus
2 : 1
La Fiorita
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Virtus-
TBD-
Juvenes/Dogana1
AC Libertas1
Folgore-
TBD-
TBD-
SP Domagnano-
Tre Penne-
TBD-
SP Cosmos3
SS Pennarossa0
La Fiorita-
TBD-
TBD-
Fiorentino-
Quarter-finals
Virtus2
Juvenes/Dogana0
Folgore2
SP Domagnano3
Tre Penne0
SP Cosmos0
La Fiorita3
Fiorentino3
Semi-finals
Virtus3
SP Domagnano3
Tre Penne1
La Fiorita2
Final
Virtus2
La Fiorita1
SP Domagnano1
Tre Penne3