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Trefelin vs Aberystwyth

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Brock T.
(Penalty)
54'
Thompson L.
66' Event
Bowen L.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Trefelin and Aberystwyth finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Trefelin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Trefelin
15%
Draws
85%
Aberystwyth
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Aberystwyth haven't matched Trefelin's recent run of results.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Aberystwyth taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Aberystwyth
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 21 13
Draws 1 3
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 2.5 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Aberystwyth
4:0
Nov 8, 2025 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Trefelin
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Top Goalscorer Bowen L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Georgievsky K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Aberystwyth Compare

Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 10 / 100
Aberystwyth 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Aberystwyth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Trefelin scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Aberystwyth's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Aberystwyth registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Aberystwyth
2.63 Goals Scored 1.75
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2
Caernarfon
14 Aug
Connahs Q.
6 : 0
Trefelin
07 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 4
Llandudno FC
31 Jul
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0
Trefelin
25 Jul
Bromsgrove
8 : 0
Trefelin
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Aberystwyth

(Away)
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
08 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 2
Treowen
01 Aug
Afan Lido
2 : 5
Aberystwyth
18 Apr
Ynyshir Albions
0 : 0
Aberystwyth
11 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 1
Aberystwyth
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)