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Treowen vs Carmarthen Town Prediction & H2H Stats

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Jenkins C.
72' Event
Gameson T.
87' Event
Davies C.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Treowen in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Treowen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Treowen
30%
Draws
29%
Carmarthen Town
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Treowen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Treowen lately — more wins on the board than Carmarthen Town.
  • Model gives Treowen a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
  • Treowen have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treowen Carmarthen Town
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.93 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Treowen
2:4
Apr 18, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Carmarthen Town
4:1
Sep 12, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Treowen
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Jenkins C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gameson T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Cummings L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treowen 40 / 100
Carmarthen Town 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treowen Carmarthen Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Treowen scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Carmarthen Town conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Treowen stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Treowen VS Carmarthen Town
2.13 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Treowen

(Home)
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

Carmarthen Town

(Away)
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)