Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Treowen vs Pontypridd United

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Angel L.
45' Event
Edwards E.
47' Event
Hillman T.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Treowen and Pontypridd United finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pontypridd United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Treowen
20%
Draws
47%
Pontypridd United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pontypridd United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Treowen come out ahead of Pontypridd United on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Pontypridd United's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Pontypridd United have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treowen Pontypridd United
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.97 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:2
Nov 22, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
1:2
Oct 3, 2025 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Treowen
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Hillman T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Pontypridd United Compare

Top Goalscorer Angel L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edwards E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treowen 22 / 100
Pontypridd United 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treowen Pontypridd United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pontypridd United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Treowen scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.75 goals.

Pontypridd United has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Treowen remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Treowen VS Pontypridd United
2.5 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Treowen

(Home)
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 7

Pontypridd United

(Away)
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2
Pontypridd United
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1
Afan Lido
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4
Pontypridd United
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4
Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)