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Treowen vs Pontypridd United

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Angel L.
45' Event
Edwards E.
47' Event
Hillman T.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Treowen and Pontypridd United finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pontypridd United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Treowen
20%
Draws
58%
Pontypridd United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pontypridd United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pontypridd United come out ahead of Treowen on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Pontypridd United's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Pontypridd United have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treowen Pontypridd United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.75 1.63
Goals Conceded 2.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:2
Nov 22, 2025 FA Cup
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
1:2
Oct 3, 2025 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Treowen
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Hillman T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Pontypridd United Compare

Top Goalscorer Angel L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edwards E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treowen 10 / 100
Pontypridd United 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treowen Pontypridd United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Treowen scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 4.75 goals.

Pontypridd United has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Treowen remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Treowen VS Pontypridd United
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Treowen

(Home)
01 Aug
Treowen
2 : 3
Pontypridd United
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1
Carmarthen Town
03 Apr
Trefelin
6 : 0
Treowen
28 Mar
Treowen
1 : 5
Ammanford Town
23 Mar
Treowen
0 : 1
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6

Pontypridd United

(Away)
01 Aug
Treowen
2 : 3
Pontypridd United
18 Apr
Pontypridd United
0 : 0
Caerau Ely
11 Apr
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2
Pontypridd United
04 Apr
Carmarthen Town
0 : 1
Pontypridd United
27 Mar
Pontypridd United
1 : 3
Trefelin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pontypridd United 2 2 0 0 6:4 6
2 Ynyshir Albions 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Aberystwyth 1 1 0 0 5:2 3
4 Newport City 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Pure Swansea 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Afan Lido 2 1 0 1 7:5 3
7 Pontardawe 2 1 0 1 5:3 3
8 Carmarthen Town 1 1 0 0 4:3 3
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
10 Baglan Dragons 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
11 Caerau Ely 2 0 1 1 4:5 1
12 Cardiff Draconians 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
13 Llanelli 2 0 1 1 2:5 1
14 Caerphilly 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
15 Treowen 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
16 Llantwit Major 2 0 0 2 0:8 0
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)