Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Treviso vs Castegnato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Borsato D.
23' Event
Arcopinto A.
32' Event
Gnago Y. G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 game between Treviso and Castegnato finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Treviso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Treviso
35%
Draws
6%
Castegnato
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Treviso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Treviso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Treviso are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Treviso Clean Sheet 19%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treviso Castegnato
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.32 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Treviso
1:2
Dec 16, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Treviso vs Castegnato
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treviso Compare

Top Goalscorer Borsato D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arcopinto A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Castegnato Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treviso 85 / 100
Castegnato 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treviso Castegnato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Treviso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castegnato let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Treviso went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Treviso's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Treviso VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Treviso

(Home)
27 Sept
Renate
0 : 1
Treviso
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Union Brescia
2 : 2
Treviso
13 Sept
Treviso
2 : 1
Pro Vercelli
07 Sept
Alcione Milano
1 : 1
Treviso
Page 1 of 7

Castegnato

(Away)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)