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Triestina vs Lumezzane

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 Stadio Nereo Rocco, Trieste
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Rolando M.
40'
Faggioli A.
51'
Drago G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 game between Triestina and Lumezzane finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Triestina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Triestina
35%
Draws
41%
Lumezzane
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lumezzane

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Lumezzane carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Lumezzane's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Triestina Clean Sheet 16%
Lumezzane Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Triestina Lumezzane
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 11
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 1.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Lumezzane
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Lumezzane vs Triestina
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Lumezzane vs Triestina
1:3
Sep 26, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Lumezzane
2:3
Feb 18, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Lumezzane vs Triestina
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Triestina Compare

Top Goalscorer Jonsson K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Lumezzane Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferro M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.82

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Triestina 23 / 100
Lumezzane 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Triestina Lumezzane

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lumezzane Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Triestina's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Triestina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Lumezzane's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Triestina VS Lumezzane
0.83 Goals Scored 1.13
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.13
83% Over 1.5 50%
33% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Triestina

(Home)
20 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1
Bassano Virtus
16 Sept
Campodarsego
2 : 1
Triestina
13 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1
Calvi Noale
06 Sept
Altavilla
1 : 1
Triestina
25 Apr
Triestina
1 : 6
Vicenza
Page 1 of 6

Lumezzane

(Away)
17 Sept
Lumezzane
0 : 0
Novara
13 Sept
Lumezzane
2 : 2
Renate
06 Sept
Cittadella
2 : 1
Lumezzane
30 Aug
Lumezzane
1 : 0
Giana Erminio
22 Aug
Ospitaletto
2 : 0
Lumezzane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vicenza 38 27 8 3 69:26 89
2 Union Brescia 38 19 12 7 49:24 69
3 Renate 38 17 13 8 53:37 64
4 Lecco 38 18 10 10 47:34 64
5 Trento 38 16 15 7 58:42 63
6 Cittadella 38 17 8 13 45:43 59
7 Lumezzane 38 14 14 10 46:39 56
8 Alcione Milano 38 15 10 13 35:28 55
9 Arzignano 38 15 8 15 50:48 53
10 Giana Erminio 38 14 10 14 38:39 52
11 AlbinoLeffe 38 13 11 14 51:49 50
12 Inter U23 38 12 12 14 40:41 48
13 Novara 38 9 20 9 40:39 47
14 Pro Vercelli 38 13 7 18 39:55 46
15 Ospitaletto 38 10 15 13 41:43 45
16 Pergolettese 38 10 11 17 37:50 41
17 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 10 10 18 38:61 40
18 Virtus Verona 38 3 16 19 34:62 25
19 Pro Patria 38 4 11 23 34:70 23
20 Triestina 38 9 9 20 45:59 12
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)