Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Trofense vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Trofense Logo

Trofense

1 - 1
FT
Mafra Logo

Mafra

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Lobo G.
Assist: Oliveira J.
45'
Sambu B.
46'
Sub
Goncalves V. In: Matos R.
Out: Goncalves V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Trofense and Mafra finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Trofense
15%
Draws
59%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mafra come out ahead of Trofense on wins alone.
  • Mafra are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mafra have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Trofense Clean Sheet 13%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Mafra
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 13
Draws 9 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.67 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Trofense
1:0
Feb 27, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Mafra
1:1
May 28, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Mafra
1:2
Jan 21, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Trofense
1:0
Feb 20, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Mafra
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lobo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Matos R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 10 / 100
Mafra 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mafra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mafra conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Trofense scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Trofense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Mafra
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Mafra

(Away)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)