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Trofense vs Vitoria Guimaraes B

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Sub
Oliveira A. In: Sicuba J.
Out: Oliveira A.
24' Event
Opara E.
Assist: Tepe M.
31' Event
Diarra M.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Trofense
30%
Draws
39%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vitoria Guimaraes B lately — more wins on the board than Trofense.
  • Win probability leans Vitoria Guimaraes B's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Trofense Clean Sheet 18%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Vitoria Guimaraes B
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.67 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
0:0
May 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
1:2
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Opara E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 10 / 100
Vitoria Guimaraes B 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Vitoria Guimaraes B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Guimaraes B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes B's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Trofense scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Trofense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Vitoria Guimaraes B
0.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Away)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)