Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D

Desenzano Calvina

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tropical Coriano play Desenzano Calvina in the Serie D - Group D. Desenzano Calvina are favorites here. Recently, Tropical Coriano averaged 0.81 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.65 goals scored and 0.58 conceded. In past meetings, Tropical Coriano won 0, Desenzano Calvina won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 8, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Tropical Coriano and 1.25 for Desenzano Calvina. This points to a Desenzano Calvina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%

Tropical Coriano

24%

Draws

57%

Desenzano Calvina

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Tropical Coriano picked up more points recently compared to Desenzano Calvina.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 64%

Over 2.5 Goals 33%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Tropical Coriano Clean Sheet 19%

Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 58%

Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tropical Coriano	Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played	31	31
Wins	7	21
Draws	8	7
Losses	16	3
Goals Scored	0.81	1.65
Goals Conceded	1.32	0.58
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 Serie D - Group D

Tropical Coriano vs Desenzano Calvina

Possession: 58% - 59% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group D

Desenzano Calvina vs Tropical Coriano

Possession: 49% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tropical Coriano 21 / 100

Desenzano Calvina 55 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tropical Coriano Desenzano Calvina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desenzano Calvina Win (2)

Secondary Pick Desenzano Calvina & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +72.7%

9.09

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +22.1%

3.70

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tropical Coriano attacking → ← attacking Desenzano Calvina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tropical Coriano scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Desenzano Calvina let in goals in 48% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Tropical Coriano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Desenzano Calvina lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 70

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Desenzano Calvina	34	23	8	3	60:21	77
2	Lentigione	34	22	7	5	51:23	73
3	Pistoiese	34	20	11	3	61:22	71
4	Piacenza	34	19	7	8	60:35	64
5	Pro Palazzolo	34	16	9	9	44:31	57
6	Pro Sesto	34	15	10	9	45:30	55
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	34	15	10	9	35:29	55
8	Rovato Vertovese	34	14	10	10	35:29	52
9	Sangiuliano City	34	14	8	12	41:45	47
10	SCD Progresso	34	10	9	15	38:42	39
11	Sant'Angelo	34	10	9	15	38:51	39
12	Correggese	34	9	12	13	35:36	39
13	Crema	34	9	11	14	35:47	38
14	Imolese	34	8	10	16	28:47	34
15	Sasso Marconi	34	8	7	19	33:49	31
16	Tropical Coriano	34	7	10	17	29:45	31
17	Trevigliese	34	5	8	21	31:62	23
18	Tuttocuoio	34	0	8	26	18:73	8