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Troszyn vs Olimpia Elblag - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Ciach A.
44' Event
Leonowicz F.
72' Event
Kozera D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 game between Troszyn and Olimpia Elblag finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Troszyn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Troszyn
30%
Draws
35%
Olimpia Elblag
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Troszyn carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Troszyn Clean Sheet 16%
Olimpia Elblag Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Troszyn Olimpia Elblag
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.82 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Troszyn vs Olimpia Elblag
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Olimpia Elblag vs Troszyn
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Troszyn Compare

Top Goalscorer Ciach A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leonowicz F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Olimpia Elblag Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Troszyn 30 / 100
Olimpia Elblag 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Troszyn Olimpia Elblag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Troszyn Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Troszyn scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Olimpia Elblag let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Troszyn went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Troszyn VS Olimpia Elblag
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Troszyn

(Home)
26 Sept
Troszyn
1 : 1
LKS Lodz II
19 Sept
MKS Mlawa
4 : 1
Troszyn
12 Sept
Troszyn
1 : 1
LKS Lomza
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2
Troszyn
29 Aug
Troszyn
3 : 3
KTS Weszlo
Page 1 of 6

Olimpia Elblag

(Away)
03 Oct
LKS Lomza
0 : 2
Olimpia Elblag
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
19 Sept
KTS Weszlo
2 : 1
Olimpia Elblag
12 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 0
Pelikan
04 Sept
Warta Sieradz
4 : 1
Olimpia Elblag
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Legia II 34 27 3 4 82:29 84
2 LKS Lomza 34 22 5 7 77:31 71
3 Warta Sieradz 34 21 8 5 64:34 71
4 Suwalki 34 20 5 9 64:43 65
5 Troszyn 34 17 6 11 75:47 57
6 Plock II 34 16 8 10 56:51 56
7 Widzew Lodz II 34 17 3 14 70:64 54
8 Jagiellonia II 34 14 7 13 46:45 49
9 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 34 13 8 13 64:55 47
10 Zabkovia Zabki 34 13 5 16 72:64 44
11 Swit Mazowiecki 34 12 5 17 51:66 41
12 MKS Mlawa 34 11 7 16 55:59 40
13 Olimpia Elblag 34 10 8 16 45:61 38
14 GKS Wikielec 34 10 7 17 40:54 37
15 Bron Radom 34 9 9 16 40:57 36
16 GKS Belchatow 34 9 7 18 50:76 34
17 Wasilkow 34 7 4 23 40:79 25
18 Znicz Biala Piska 34 4 3 27 27:103 15
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)