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Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights

Australia Australia

NPL ACT Kambah Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Tuggeranong United play O'Connor Knights in the NPL ACT. Tuggeranong United are favorites here. Recently, Tuggeranong United averaged 2.07 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. O'Connor Knights averaged 1.34 goals scored and 2.83 conceded. In past meetings, Tuggeranong United won 4, O'Connor Knights won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 13, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.50 for Tuggeranong United and 2.06 for O'Connor Knights. This points to a Tuggeranong United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Tuggeranong United
15%
Draws
22%
O'Connor Knights
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tuggeranong United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • Tuggeranong United picked up more points recently compared to O'Connor Knights.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.50 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76%
Tuggeranong United Clean Sheet 10%
O'Connor Knights Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuggeranong United O'Connor Knights
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 7
Draws 2 1
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 2.07 1.34
Goals Conceded 2.43 2.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 NPL ACT
O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong United
2:3
Apr 15, 2026 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights
2:0
Aug 24, 2025 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights
3:1
Jul 5, 2025 NPL ACT
O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong United
2:3
May 11, 2025 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuggeranong United Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceruti J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Green J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

O'Connor Knights Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuggeranong United 59 / 100
O'Connor Knights 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuggeranong United O'Connor Knights

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tuggeranong United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Tuggeranong United & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.82
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tuggeranong United attacking → ← attacking O'Connor Knights

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuggeranong United scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

O'Connor Knights let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Tuggeranong United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

O'Connor Knights lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 22
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Monaro Panthers15120353:2236
2Canberra Croatia14111241:1634
3Tigers FC15101441:1831
4Canberra Juventus1390430:2127
5Tuggeranong United1390433:2927
6Queanbeyan City1380528:1924
7O'Connor Knights1450915:2815
8Canberra Olympic1441930:4013
9Belconnen United14221023:338
10Brindabella Blues1320117:426
11Canberra White Eagles14111210:434