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Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Tukuma pilsētas stadions, Tukums
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Match Events

18'
Oloko E.
25' Event
Deruzinskis R.
Assist: Gastaldelo L.
31'
Anmanis Kaspars

AI Match Summary

Tukums 2000 in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tukums 2000.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Tukums 2000
35%
Draws
39%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • FK Liepaja have won more games recently than Tukums 2000.
  • Model gives FK Liepaja a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 14%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tukums 2000 FK Liepaja
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 5 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.45 1.32
Goals Conceded 2 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
2:1
May 30, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000
3:0
Apr 17, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
2:2
Sep 14, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000
4:1
Jun 25, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Deruzinskis R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tukums 2000 23 / 100
FK Liepaja 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tukums 2000 FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: FK Liepaja conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Tukums 2000 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tukums 2000 VS FK Liepaja
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tukums 2000

(Home)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)