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Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Tukuma pilsētas stadions, Tukums
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Match Events

34' Event
Kalnins M.
Assist: Estevez Fernandez L.
54'
Melkis R.
57'
Stals M.

AI Match Summary

Tukums 2000 in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tukums 2000.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tukums 2000
20%
Draws
40%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Tukums 2000 average 1.45 goals a game right now, well clear of Ogre United's 1.14.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 15%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tukums 2000 Ogre United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 5
Draws 8 5
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 1.45 1.14
Goals Conceded 2 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
2:1
Jun 26, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
3:2
May 7, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
6:1
Mar 15, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Samoilovs B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Deruzinskis R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalnins M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tukums 2000 31 / 100
Ogre United 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tukums 2000 Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.25 goals per match.

Ogre United lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tukums 2000 VS Ogre United
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 2.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tukums 2000

(Home)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)