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Tupan vs Sao Jose (MA)

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tupan play Sao Jose (MA) in the Maranhense 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tupan averaged 0.76 goals scored and 2 conceded. Sao Jose (MA) averaged 1.19 goals scored and 2.45 conceded. In past meetings, Tupan won 0, Sao Jose (MA) won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Tupan and 1.19 for Sao Jose (MA). This points to a Sao Jose (MA) double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Tupan
15%
Draws
55%
Sao Jose (MA)
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sao Jose (MA)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Tupan picked up more points recently compared to Sao Jose (MA).
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Tupan Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Jose (MA) Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tupan Sao Jose (MA)
Matches Played 17 31
Wins 2 7
Draws 5 4
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 0.76 1.19
Goals Conceded 2 2.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Maranhense 2
Tupan vs Sao Jose (MA)
2:3
Nov 5, 2024 Maranhense 2
Tupan vs Sao Jose (MA)
0:3
Oct 15, 2024 Maranhense 2
Sao Jose (MA) vs Tupan
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tupan 31 / 100
Sao Jose (MA) 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tupan Sao Jose (MA)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Jose (MA) Win (2)
Secondary Pick Sao Jose (MA) & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tupan attacking → ← attacking Sao Jose (MA)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tupan scored in 47% of their last 17 games.

Sao Jose (MA) let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Tupan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sao Jose (MA) lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 25
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Araioses54106:013
2Sao Luis53119:410
3Tupan51316:66
4Expressinho52035:66
5Americano Bacabal51133:94
6Sao Jose (MA)51044:83
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lago Verde430113:39
2Pinheiro42114:37
3Viana40132:131
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Timon EC (MA)42204:18
2Cordino EC41213:35
3Balsas40223:62