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Turan vs Gabala

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tovuz şəhər stadionu, Tovuz
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Match Events

3' Event
Hurtado H.
22'
Guseynov A.
27' Event
Ahmadov E.

AI Match Summary

Turan in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Turan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Turan
28%
Draws
50%
Gabala
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Turan lately — more wins on the board than Gabala.
  • Model gives Gabala a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Turan here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Turan Clean Sheet 22%
Gabala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Gabala
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
3:2
Feb 24, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
0:3
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
1:2
Feb 13, 2024 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Hurtado H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jo Batista
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gabala Compare

Top Goalscorer Ahmadov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 24 / 100
Gabala 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Gabala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gabala has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Turan's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Turan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Gabala
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
27 Apr
Turan
1 : 1
Zira FK
Page 1 of 6

Gabala

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)