Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Turan vs Gabala

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Tovuz şəhər stadionu, Tovuz
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Milagres H.
35' Event
Milagres H.
45'
Sub
Jo Batista In: Beusnard S.
Out: Jo Batista

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Turan and Gabala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Turan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Turan
15%
Draws
53%
Gabala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Gabala haven't matched Turan's recent run of results.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Gabala taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Turan have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Turan Clean Sheet 22%
Gabala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Gabala
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.3 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
1:0
Mar 21, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
3:2
Feb 24, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
0:3
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Milagres H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 29 / 100
Gabala 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Gabala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gabala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turan's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Gabala let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Turan stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Gabala
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
14 Aug
Turan
1 : 0
Gabala
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
Page 1 of 6

Gabala

(Away)
14 Aug
Turan
1 : 0
Gabala
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Qarabag Agdam 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Neftci Baku 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
3 Zira FK 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
4 Sabah Baku 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
5 Turan 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
6 Imisli FK 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
7 Araz PFK 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
8 Gabala 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
9 Shamakhi 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
10 SumQayit FK 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
11 Kapaz 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
12 Safa Baku 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)