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Turan vs Gabala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Tovuz şəhər stadionu, Tovuz
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Match Events

13'
Henrique Silva
35' Event
Henrique Silva
45'
Sub
Jo Batista In: Beusnard S.
Out: Jo Batista

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Turan and Gabala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Turan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Turan
20%
Draws
29%
Gabala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Turan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Gabala haven't matched Turan's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Turan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Turan have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Turan Clean Sheet 68%
Gabala Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Gabala
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
1:0
Mar 21, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
3:2
Feb 24, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
0:3
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Gabala
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Gabala vs Turan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique Silva
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 59 / 100
Gabala 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Gabala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Turan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turan's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Gabala let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Turan stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Gabala
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
03 Oct
Turan
0 : 2
Fenerbahce
19 Sept
Turan
1 : 0
Zira FK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Turan
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
30 Aug
Kapaz
1 : 0
Turan
Page 1 of 6

Gabala

(Away)
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Gabala
2 : 1
Imisli FK
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1
Safa Baku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 6 3 1 2 7:8 10
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
8 Gabala 6 1 1 4 2:7 4
9 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
11 SumQayit FK 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)