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Turkey vs Wales

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Turkey play Wales in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Turkey averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Turkey won 1, Wales won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Nov 16, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Turkey and 1.13 for Wales. This points to a Turkey double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Turkey
35%
Draws
28%
Wales
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Turkey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Turkey picked up more points recently compared to Wales.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Turkey Clean Sheet 21%
Wales Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turkey Wales
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 12
Draws 5 10
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.77 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Turkey vs Wales
0:0
Sep 6, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Wales vs Turkey
0:0
Nov 21, 2023 Euro
Wales vs Turkey
1:1
Jun 19, 2023 Euro
Turkey vs Wales
2:0
Jun 16, 2021 Euro
Turkey vs Wales
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turkey 38 / 100
Wales 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turkey Wales

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Turkey or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Turkey attacking → ← attacking Wales

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turkey scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Wales let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Turkey went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Wales lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 46
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Czech Republic63219:811
2Ukraine62228:88
3Georgia62137:67
4Albania62134:67
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1England650116:315
2Greece650111:415
3Ireland62043:126
4Finland60062:130
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Norway641115:713
2Austria632114:511
3Slovenia62227:98
4Kazakhstan60150:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wales63309:412
2Turkey63219:611
3Iceland621310:137
4Montenegro61054:93