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Tusker vs Leopards

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ssenyonjo S.
23' Event
Ssenyonjo S.
48' Event
Sichenje R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Tusker and Leopards finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leopards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tusker
15%
Draws
42%
Leopards
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Leopards carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tusker are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
Leopards Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker Leopards
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 3 4
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.93 1.08
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Premier League
Leopards vs Tusker
1:0
Jan 11, 2026 Premier League
Tusker vs Leopards
0:4
May 3, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Leopards
0:0
Dec 11, 2024 Premier League
Leopards vs Tusker
4:1
Mar 10, 2024 Premier League
Tusker vs Leopards
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tusker Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Leopards Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssenyonjo S.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Sichenje R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 51 / 100
Leopards 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker Leopards

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Tusker went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Tusker scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Leopards conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS Leopards
1 Goals Scored 1.29
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.86
63% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
26 Jul
Al-Hilal Omdurman
2 : 0
Tusker
14 Jun
Tusker
2 : 1
Police FC
Page 1 of 6

Leopards

(Away)
22 Aug
Leopards
1 : 0
Kampala City
31 May
Leopards
1 : 2
Bidco United
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)