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U. Catolica vs LDU Quito - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Fri, Oct 30, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-3. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: U. Catolica at 1.59 goals for, 1.09 against; LDU Quito at 1.26 for, 0.79 against. Head-to-head, U. Catolica have won 2 to LDU Quito's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.06 - 1.13) back LDU Quito to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
U. Catolica
35%
Draws
40%
LDU Quito
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • LDU Quito have won more games recently than U. Catolica.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • LDU Quito arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor U. Catolica, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 21%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric U. Catolica LDU Quito
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 14 15
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.59 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.09 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs U. Catolica
2:1
Jul 15, 2026 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs LDU Quito
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs U. Catolica
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs U. Catolica
2:0
Dec 19, 2025 Copa Ecuador
LDU Quito vs U. Catolica
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

U. Catolica 37 / 100
LDU Quito 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
U. Catolica LDU Quito

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDU Quito Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

U. Catolica found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

LDU Quito has conceded goals in 65% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: U. Catolica stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

U. Catolica VS LDU Quito
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

U. Catolica

(Home)
23 Oct
Independiente del Valle
0 : 0
U. Catolica
18 Oct
Barcelona SC
1 : 1
U. Catolica
11 Oct
U. Catolica
0 : 1
Macara
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
Page 1 of 7

LDU Quito

(Away)
24 Oct
LDU Quito
1 : 2
Macara
17 Oct
Aucas
1 : 1
LDU Quito
11 Oct
LDU Quito
2 : 1
Barcelona SC
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle 2
Gualaceo 0
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
Independiente del Valle -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -