Sport Picks

Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Mushuc Runa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

U. Catolica play Mushuc Runa in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, U. Catolica averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Mushuc Runa averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, U. Catolica won 1, Mushuc Runa won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jul 6, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for U. Catolica and 1.38 for Mushuc Runa. This points to a U. Catolica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

U. Catolica

35%

Draws

31%

Mushuc Runa

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: U. Catolica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

U. Catolica picked up more points recently compared to Mushuc Runa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

U. Catolica Clean Sheet 17%

Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	U. Catolica	Mushuc Runa
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	11	9
Draws	10	10
Losses	11	10
Goals Scored	1.5	1.28
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.24
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 57% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

Mar 1, 2026 Liga Pro

Mushuc Runa vs U. Catolica

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Jul 5, 2025 Liga Pro

Mushuc Runa vs U. Catolica

Possession: 42% - 51% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

Mar 9, 2025 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 41% - 46% Cards: 3 - 0

1:1

Aug 31, 2024 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 60% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Londono A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Mushuc Runa Compare

Top Goalscorer Angulo C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Carrillo R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

U. Catolica 34 / 100

Mushuc Runa 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

U. Catolica Mushuc Runa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: U. Catolica or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

U. Catolica attacking → ← attacking Mushuc Runa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

U. Catolica scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Mushuc Runa let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

U. Catolica went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mushuc Runa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 37

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	17	13	1	3	36:18	40
2	Barcelona SC	17	8	5	4	20:13	29
3	LDU Quito	17	8	3	6	19:14	27
4	Dep. Cuenca	17	8	3	6	18:19	27
5	U. Catolica	17	7	5	5	28:17	26
6	Aucas	16	7	5	4	19:16	26
7	Macara	17	6	5	6	16:18	23
8	Emelec	17	6	5	6	14:17	23
9	Orense	16	6	4	6	21:22	22
10	Mushuc Runa	17	5	6	6	22:23	21
11	Tecnico U.	16	6	2	8	17:16	20
12	Leones del Norte	17	5	5	7	18:19	20
13	Guayaquil City	16	5	4	7	14:19	19
14	Delfin	17	4	5	8	9:16	17
15	Libertad	17	4	5	8	17:25	17
16	Manta	17	3	3	11	7:23	12