Sport Picks

Chile

Liga de Ascenso Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

D. Puerto Montt

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

U. Espanola play D. Puerto Montt in the Liga de Ascenso. It looks like a close match. Recently, U. Espanola averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. D. Puerto Montt averaged 1.54 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, U. Espanola won 2, D. Puerto Montt won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 20, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for U. Espanola and 1.13 for D. Puerto Montt. This points to a D. Puerto Montt double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

U. Espanola

19%

Draws

51%

D. Puerto Montt

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: D. Puerto Montt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

U. Espanola picked up more points recently compared to D. Puerto Montt.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

U. Espanola Clean Sheet 21%

D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	U. Espanola	D. Puerto Montt
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	9	17
Draws	7	4
Losses	14	7
Goals Scored	1.3	1.54
Goals Conceded	1.53	0.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Liga de Ascenso

U. Espanola vs D. Puerto Montt

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Jun 27, 2021 Copa Chile

U. Espanola vs D. Puerto Montt

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Jun 23, 2021 Copa Chile

D. Puerto Montt vs U. Espanola

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Oct 11, 2010 Copa Chile

D. Puerto Montt vs U. Espanola

Possession: 41% - 41% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Nov 16, 2008 Liga de Ascenso

U. Espanola vs D. Puerto Montt

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 3 - 4

3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

U. Espanola Compare

Top Goalscorer Contreras K.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nunez I.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

D. Puerto Montt Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

U. Espanola 31 / 100

D. Puerto Montt 48 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

U. Espanola D. Puerto Montt

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: D. Puerto Montt or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

U. Espanola attacking → ← attacking D. Puerto Montt

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

U. Espanola scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

D. Puerto Montt let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

U. Espanola went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

D. Puerto Montt lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 55

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	15	8	5	2	30:17	29
2	S. Wanderers	15	7	5	3	29:18	26
3	San Marcos de Arica	15	6	7	2	19:11	25
4	Deportes Temuco	15	6	5	4	26:18	23
5	Antofagasta	15	6	5	4	22:16	23
6	San Luis	15	6	5	4	24:21	23
7	D. Puerto Montt	15	7	2	6	17:16	23
8	U. Espanola	15	6	4	5	21:19	22
9	Magallanes	15	6	4	5	24:24	22
10	Recoleta	15	6	4	5	24:24	22
11	Copiapo	15	6	4	5	21:23	22
12	Curico Unido	15	4	6	5	16:24	18
13	San Felipe	15	4	4	7	13:27	16
14	Deportes Iquique	15	2	7	6	19:23	13
15	Deportes Santa Cruz	15	2	6	7	19:26	12
16	Rangers	15	0	3	12	11:28	3