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UC Cartes vs SD Noja

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Laherran C.
63' Event
Cantero M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
UC Cartes
35%
Draws
32%
SD Noja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • SD Noja haven't matched UC Cartes's recent run of results.
  • Model gives UC Cartes a 33% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
UC Cartes Clean Sheet 68%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UC Cartes SD Noja
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 4
Draws 9 5
Losses 16 21
Goals Scored 0.87 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UC Cartes
2:2
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UC Cartes vs SD Noja
1:1
Apr 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UC Cartes vs SD Noja
3:2
Dec 19, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UC Cartes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UC Cartes Compare

Top Goalscorer Laherran C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Cantero M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UC Cartes 95 / 100
SD Noja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UC Cartes SD Noja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UC Cartes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Noja let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: UC Cartes scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

SD Noja lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UC Cartes VS SD Noja
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

UC Cartes

(Home)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Cayon CD
3 : 2
UC Cartes
18 Apr
UC Cartes
0 : 1
CD Montanas del Pas
11 Apr
UM Escobedo
3 : 1
UC Cartes
Page 1 of 6

SD Noja

(Away)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
CD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)