Sport Picks
UCAM Murcia vs Jaen
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio de La Condomina, Murcia 
Match Events
70'
70'
Adri P.
80'
80'
Mizzian M.
90'
90'
Bernardo A.
AI Match Summary
The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between UCAM Murcia and Jaen finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jaen.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaen
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Jaen carry the better recent record into this one.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on UCAM Murcia taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and UCAM Murcia have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 68%
Jaen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UCAM Murcia | Jaen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 17 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 26, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Jaen
1:2
Dec 14, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs UCAM Murcia
0:3
Feb 14, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs UCAM Murcia
0:1
Sep 27, 2015 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Jaen
1:0
Mar 1, 2015 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs UCAM Murcia
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UCAM Murcia Compare
Top Goalscorer Mizzian M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.16
Avg xA / game 0.76
Jaen Compare
Top Goalscorer Adri P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Bernardo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UCAM Murcia 68 / 100
Jaen 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UCAM Murcia Jaen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
UCAM Murcia found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).
Jaen has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
UCAM Murcia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
UCAM Murcia VS Jaen
2.14 Goals Scored 1.75
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
UCAM Murcia
(Home) 27 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 CF Intercity
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4 UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0 Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1 UCAM Murcia
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2 Orihuela
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27 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 CF Intercity
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0 Valencia B
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2 Orihuela
01 Aug
UCAM Murcia
1 : 1 Hercules
26 Apr
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 Jaen
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Jaen
(Away) 27 Sept
Antequera
2 : 0 Jaen
19 Sept
Jaen
2 : 1 UD Ibiza
12 Sept
Teruel
0 : 1 Jaen
06 Sept
Jaen
2 : 2 Huesca
30 Aug
CE Europa
0 : 3 Jaen
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Antequera
2 : 0 Jaen
12 Sept
Teruel
0 : 1 Jaen
30 Aug
CE Europa
0 : 3 Jaen
01 Aug
Linares
0 : 2 Jaen
24 Jul
Cacereno
1 : 1 Jaen
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:38 | 63 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 50:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Aguilas FC | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 45:25 | 61 |
| 4 | Xerez CD | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 32:24 | 59 |
| 5 | Jaen | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 43:33 | 58 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:25 | 57 |
| 7 | UCAM Murcia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Linares | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 9 | La Union (Malacitano) | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:43 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | 45 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 33:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Antoniano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:40 | 44 |
| 13 | CD Estepona | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:44 | 44 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 28:37 | 40 |
| 15 | Xerez Deportivo FC | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 34:43 | 36 |
| 16 | Melilla | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 36:40 | 34 |
| 17 | Almeria B | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26:53 | 21 |
| 18 | Malaga B | 34 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
