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UD Almansa vs Hogar Alcarreno Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022 game between UD Almansa and Hogar Alcarreno finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD Almansa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
UD Almansa
20%
Draws
10%
Hogar Alcarreno
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UD Almansa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD Almansa come out ahead of Hogar Alcarreno on wins alone.
  • UD Almansa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
UD Almansa Clean Sheet 68%
Hogar Alcarreno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Almansa Hogar Alcarreno
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 4
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 1.34 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.59 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.30 1.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
UD Almansa vs Hogar Alcarreno
3:2
Nov 27, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Hogar Alcarreno vs UD Almansa
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Almansa 95 / 100
Hogar Alcarreno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Almansa Hogar Alcarreno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Almansa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hogar Alcarreno has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

UD Almansa found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: UD Almansa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Almansa VS Hogar Alcarreno
1.75 Goals Scored 1.14
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.86
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Almansa

(Home)
04 Oct
Manchego Ciudad Real
1 : 0
UD Almansa
27 Sept
UD Almansa
3 : 1
Huracan de Balazote
19 Sept
Villacanas
0 : 0
UD Almansa
13 Sept
UD Almansa
3 : 0
La Solana
05 Sept
Noblejas
3 : 2
UD Almansa
Page 1 of 6

Hogar Alcarreno

(Away)
30 Apr
Illescas
2 : 0
Hogar Alcarreno
23 Apr
Hogar Alcarreno
2 : 2
Villacanas
10 Apr
Manchego Ciudad Real
6 : 1
Hogar Alcarreno
02 Apr
Hogar Alcarreno
0 : 3
Conquense
27 Mar
UD Almansa
3 : 2
Hogar Alcarreno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guadalajara 34 23 8 3 71:19 77
2 Quintanar del Rey 34 21 7 6 63:29 70
3 Illescas 34 20 7 7 56:33 67
4 Villarrobledo 34 18 10 6 53:25 64
5 Torrijos 34 17 9 8 50:30 60
6 Conquense 34 15 11 8 49:30 56
7 Villarrubia 34 16 7 11 45:38 55
8 Azuqueca 34 16 6 12 55:40 54
9 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 15 9 10 50:26 54
10 CD Tarancon 34 16 3 15 46:45 51
11 Villacanas 34 13 7 14 47:51 46
12 Albacete B 34 11 11 12 47:40 44
13 UD Almansa 34 12 7 15 44:51 43
14 Huracan de Balazote 34 10 7 17 52:56 37
15 San Clemente 34 10 6 18 30:50 36
16 Miguelturreno 34 7 4 23 35:67 25
17 Hogar Alcarreno 34 4 5 25 29:90 17
18 La Roda 34 0 0 34 0:102 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022 (Play Offs)