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UD Almansa vs Marchamalo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD Almansa host Marchamalo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 18. Little to choose between these two on current form. UD Almansa have averaged 1.34 scored and 1.59 conceded recently, against Marchamalo's 1.5 scored and 1.09 conceded. Past meetings favor UD Almansa slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 28, 2018, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.17 vs 0.85, favoring Marchamalo. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
UD Almansa
30%
Draws
37%
Marchamalo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marchamalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marchamalo lately — more wins on the board than UD Almansa.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on UD Almansa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
UD Almansa Clean Sheet 20%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Almansa Marchamalo
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.34 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
UD Almansa vs Marchamalo
1:1
Sep 10, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs UD Almansa
1:1
Mar 11, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
UD Almansa vs Marchamalo
2:0
Oct 16, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs UD Almansa
1:1
Apr 3, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs UD Almansa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Almansa 42 / 100
Marchamalo 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Almansa Marchamalo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Almansa scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Marchamalo has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

UD Almansa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Almansa VS Marchamalo
1.33 Goals Scored 0.88
0.83 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Almansa

(Home)
04 Oct
Manchego Ciudad Real
1 : 0
UD Almansa
27 Sept
UD Almansa
3 : 1
Huracan de Balazote
19 Sept
Villacanas
0 : 0
UD Almansa
13 Sept
UD Almansa
3 : 0
La Solana
05 Sept
Noblejas
3 : 2
UD Almansa
Page 1 of 6

Marchamalo

(Away)
03 Oct
Marchamalo
2 : 2
CD Tarancon
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2
Marchamalo
20 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 2
CD Guadalajara B
13 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 2
Marchamalo
05 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 0
CD Villa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchego Ciudad Real 5 5 0 0 8:2 15
2 Villarrobledo 5 3 2 0 8:1 11
3 Illescas 5 3 2 0 7:3 11
4 Torrijos 5 3 2 0 6:2 11
5 Toledo 5 3 1 1 12:6 10
6 CD Villa 5 3 0 2 6:4 9
7 Marchamalo 5 2 2 1 10:7 8
8 CD Tarancon 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 UD Almansa 5 2 1 2 8:5 7
10 Villacanas 5 2 1 2 6:4 7
11 Noblejas 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
12 San Clemente 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
13 Socuellamos 5 0 4 1 3:5 4
14 La Solana 5 1 0 4 4:9 3
15 Villarrubia 5 0 3 2 3:9 3
16 CD Guadalajara B 5 0 2 3 6:12 2
17 Quintanar del Rey 5 0 2 3 5:11 2
18 Huracan de Balazote 5 0 0 5 4:14 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 6 (Promotion - Play Offs)